July 12, 2026

A UFC Card Shoved Love Island Out of #1 the Night Before Its Finale

Paramount+ took the top of Apple's free chart after UFC 329 streamed exclusively on Saturday, Love Island's voting catalyst expired and it fell to #8 on finale day, and Polymarket cracked the top five as prediction markets refused to slide during the World Cup's three-day gap.

Paramount+ is #1 because McGregor fought on it Saturday night

Paramount+ sits at #1 on Apple's US free chart this morning, ahead of Kalshi (#2), Netflix Game Controller (#3), and Polymarket (#4). The catalyst was UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2, which streamed exclusively on Paramount+ on Saturday July 11 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main card started at 9pm ET. No pay-per-view, no CBS simulcast, just Paramount+.

• This is the same mechanic that drove Paramount+ to #1 in June, when the UFC Freedom 250 White House card produced a 276% download surge over the prior 30-day average, per Sensor Tower data shared with Sports Business Journal. Paramount's seven-year, $7.7 billion UFC exclusivity deal is now a repeatable App Store chart engine: each exclusive numbered event forces combat-sports fans to install the app.
• The strategy is deliberately anti-simulcast. Yahoo Sports reported July 6 that Paramount chose to keep McGregor's return off CBS entirely, betting that exclusivity drives more subscriber installs than linear reach. The UFC's own fight week guide confirms the main card was "exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States," with no pay-per-view surcharge. Locking UFC numbered events behind a subscription paywall converts fight-night demand directly into app installs.
• Paramount+ previously hit #1 on June 16 (Ember Picks chart history). UFC 329 put it back. The question is whether it holds past Monday or slides back toward its typical baseline outside fight nights, when Sensor Tower places it closer to #20-25 on the free chart.

Love Island fell from #1 to #8 on its own finale day

Love Island USA is #8 on Apple's US free chart this morning, down from #1 yesterday. The drop happened because the voting catalyst expired. The finale winner vote opened Friday July 10 at 10pm ET and ran four hours, closing around 2am Saturday. Anyone who wanted to vote already downloaded the app. The season 8 finale streams tonight at 9pm ET on Peacock, but the $100k prize envelope twist is revealed on the show, not through the app.

• This is the third rank swing in five days. Love Island went #1 (Jul 8) to #13 (Jul 10) to #1 (Jul 11, finale vote opened) to #8 (today, vote closed). The app's chart position is almost entirely a function of whether a voting window is open. Between votes, it falls fast.
• The app still carries a ~1.9-star rating across roughly 6,000 reviews. That has not slowed it all season. The rating is a feature of the mechanic, not a bug: viewers download to vote, hit registration friction, leave one-star reviews, and the app charts anyway because the download volume overwhelms everything.
• Season 8 ends tonight. Expect a sharp reversion starting Monday: no more voting windows means no more download catalyst. The app's resting position is somewhere in the lower top-50, where it lived before the season 8 premiere on June 2.

The World Cup's three-day gap arrived, but the prediction markets didn't slide

The quarterfinals ended Saturday: England 2-1 Norway (Miami) and Argentina 3-1 Switzerland in extra time (Kansas City). No matches today or Monday. Semifinals are Tuesday July 14 (France v Spain, Dallas) and Wednesday July 15 (England v Argentina, Atlanta). The final is July 19.

• Kalshi is still #1 on Appfigures' overall chart and #2 on Apple's own chart. Polymarket is #4 on Apple's chart, its highest US free-chart position. It hit #6 in mid-June during the World Cup's opening stretch, per crypto trade coverage. The prediction markets have not slid during the gap because semifinal and final markets are already live. You can trade France vs Spain right now.
• Polymarket's rise is the second half of the prediction-market story covered earlier this week. Apptopia's June data showed Kalshi and Polymarket combining for 73.5% of betting-app installs June 1-15, with Kalshi at 42.3% and Polymarket at 31.2% (DeFi Rate). Polymarket's app is now charting high enough to stand on its own, not just as Kalshi's shadow.
• The test starts Tuesday. If Kalshi and Polymarket hold their positions through the gap and re-inflate for the semifinals, the World Cup has permanently raised the prediction-market category's chart ceiling. If they slide to #15-20 by Monday night, the match-day reflex is still the whole story.

Apple's reply in the Epic stay fight is due tomorrow

Apple's reply brief in support of its motion to stay the remand proceedings is due Monday July 13, per the joint stipulation approved by Judge Gonzalez Rogers on July 6. After the reply, the judge decides whether to pause the lower-court case through Supreme Court review.

• If the stay is denied, Apple must file its external-link commission proposal within 24 hours. If granted, the lower-court case goes on ice through SCOTUS, where oral arguments are expected October-December 2026 and a ruling around June 2027.
• The current status quo: Apple is charging 0% commission on purchases made through qualifying external payment links. The district court's contempt remedy bars Apple from collecting any fee until a court-approved "reasonable" rate is set. Apple is still forgoing the 27% "Link Entitlement" commission it tried to impose in 2024.
• For developers, the stakes are concrete. Every app building a link-out checkout flow is operating under the 0% rule right now. If Gonzalez Rogers denies the stay and fast-tracks the commission proceedings, Apple could have a new fee proposal on file by mid-week. If she grants it, the 0% status holds through next summer.

Meowdoku is #1 in six countries and nobody outside Istanbul noticed

Meowdoku! is #1 on the US free-games chart for the third straight snapshot (AppStoreStatistics, Jul 11), with 67,000 ratings at 4.8 stars. Smash Fest! is #2 and Block Out! is #3. The top three free games in America are all Istanbul-built, same as last week.

• Meowdoku is also #1 on Google Play in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and Australia (Ember Picks). One Istanbul studio, Oakever Games, has the #1 free game on both major app stores across six of the world's top mobile markets. The app launched April 24.
• Grand Games, the studio behind Block Out (#3) and Magic Sort (#5), raised a $70 million Series B in May (Balderton led) and is running at roughly a $500 million annual revenue rate per Deconstructor of Fun. Two apps in the US top-five free games from one Istanbul publisher.
• On the Appfigures overall chart, which mixes apps and games, Meowdoku sits at #7. A free Sudoku-Minesweeper hybrid with a cat theme is outcharting most of America's biggest non-game apps.

Tracking

• Netflix Game Controller: #3 on Apple's free chart, #5 on Appfigures overall. Second week holding near its April peak level. The accessory app keeps outcharting the streaming apps it depends on.
• Trump Accounts: #6 on Appfigures overall, down from #5 yesterday. Post-July-4 decay continues as a slow drift, not a cliff.
• AI apps: ChatGPT #7 Apple / #4 Appfigures, Claude #15 Apple / #10 Appfigures, Gemini #16 Apple / #17 Appfigures. Tech Dev Notes' 48-hour movers show Claude climbing 3 spots, Gemini up 2, Meta AI up 1 to #20 on their tracked board. The category is grinding upward underneath the weekend noise.
• TikTok Pro Events: #10 on Apple's free chart. The World Cup companion is holding through the three-day match gap. The real test is whether it survives past the July 19 final.
• Nikke: Holding #1 Korea grossing through the Marciana Marine Study banner (opened Jul 9). Cinderella crystal wave runs through Jul 23.
• Meta Pocket: Still Brazil-only, not charting in the US. No new development.
• Pokemon Champions: Still outside the US top-25 free games. The 10M-install launch surge is fully spent.